Chinese factors behind the 14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin

The $14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin is a good story for mainstream media. And the Chinese media did release stories as expected. But is the market really driven by Chinese capital market demand or it is just another bubble? You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.

Mainstream media coverage
The market capital of Bitcoin in Thursday broke $13 billion, previous record high achieved in December 2013, and heading for 14 billion today.

“It looks familiar, just like 3 years ago.”

If you are a long term hoarder of Bitcoin, then the price chart will certainly reminds you of a familiar picture in 2013.

Bitcoin market cap chart by Blockchain.info

All major financial medias in China release similar report.

WSJ China:  Back to madness: Bitcoin break through 900 USD and up 14% in 3 days
Caixin :released a video  titled: Bitcoin rose to record high in 34 months with most transaction happened in China
The caption says:

While stock traders are waiting to see the Dow Jones to break 20,000, Bitcoin has surged to 800 USD on 21st Dec, first ever since Feb 2014.

The report attributes the price surge to the change of global political and economic system, ventures capital seeking for safe-haven assets.
FT China: Bitcoin price surge and chased by capitals
Tencent: Bitcoin price breached 800 USD in 3 years

“Market cap of bitcoin is over 13 billion USD Wednesday and surpass that of Twitter”

Sina: All Bitcoin in existence worth $14 billion, a record high in history

Sina report of Bitcoin’s record high price

Bitcoin has just breached its all-time high ‘market cap’ level. Many insiders believe that it has to do with the continuous depreciation of RMB, which dropped around 7% against USD.

The report also mentions two features that attract those who seek evasion of a tightening capital control in China: fast transfer across the world and the anonymity.

It’s important to note that these media take a neutral stand since Bitcoin is still defined as a “commodity” as per the joint notice released by 4 regulatory authorities in 2013. But the comments from the readers are mostly negative. Some comments:
Hanq8973:

It is a scam invented by Americans. Keep your eyes open!

Lindashaoye:

Never trust this. The transaction are controlled by the exchange and it’s pumped by Chinese. No one is really using it as a currency. You may trade them in exchange but you can never withdraw the virtual stuff. The exchange could manipulate it at will.

Yang_weiqi:

It’s the Chinese that pump the price. Part of real estate funds are injected into Bitcoin and another function of bitcoin is to transfer money. Bitcoin is perfect for money laundering.

Weibo is the twitter counterpart in China with 282 million monthly active user in Q2 2016, second only to Wechat in terms of socializing network.
The Sina Technology account has around 12 million followers and usually The weibo  has been shared 43 times at press time. From the number of RTs and comments, the bitcoin rally is hardly the center of public attention. Usually over 1,000 RTs on weibo may become a hot topic of the day. So the record-breaking news might only stir up excitement for people within the ecosystem.
This is supported by the search trending on baidu, aniajk posted his conclusion on 8btc forum:

Baidu search trending reveals no booming of bitoin

As per an search engine analysis, “bitcoin” or “比特币” on baidu trending sees no significant increase, compared to that in 2013.

“It’s obvious that bitcoin failed to attract public attention again. Without extensive public awareness, it might be safe to say that we are no seeing a bubble. “

 

Insider’s view
There is nothing new from the mainstream coverage. But cryptocurrency veterans offer a different perspective.

Rookie Index
The “Rookie index” of biqushi reflects the flow of capital into the cryptocurrency market, data of which comes from weibo, qq group and Wechat etc. Realtime analysis will be preformed and coverted into 3 indicators: Emotion Index, Longshort index and Rookie index. These factors would help users to better judge the market trending. Below is the “Rookie Index” from July 2015 to December 2016:

As Pan Guoli, CEO of Biqushi, points out:

According the Rookie Index, the number kept on rising since October and maintain above 70% on average, comparing to the 30% in July 2015.
“Last time I see 90% is around June 2016 when price climbed over 5,000 yuan.”

Pyramid Schemes
So where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:
The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up,  with screenshots including:

The thread is also confirmed by Chandler Guo. He tells 8btc:

Yes, I am aware that there are lots of pyramid scheme are adopting Bitcoin.

He mentioned a few and I would like to keep them in private. At last, he warns:

These are all pyramid schemes. We should alert the elderly!

 

 

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