Normal Callback or Bull Pullback? Bitcoin Data Analysis May Tell
Over the past two days, cryptocurrency prices have been rising in rotation, and market participants believe that a bull market is coming. But apart from the soared price, what about the various data of bitcoin? Today, we will take a look at the fundamentals of bitcoin from three dimensions: mining data, chain data, and indicator data.
Mining data: network hashrate hits a record high, while mining revenue fell to a record low
First, the average bitcoin network hashrate, which directly shows the security of bitcoin. At the same time, the higher the network hashrate, the higher the enthusiasm of miners.
On August 2, the average network hashrate of bitcoin was 124E. If we look from the dimension of the recent period, the computing power has hit a historical high.
In fact, after bitcoin halving in May, the average bitcoin network hashrate once plummeted, from 137e to 84e. However, with the rising price and the rainy season in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan province, a number of mining machines with low computing power and high power consumption have been restarted, and the computing power has steadily recovered to the historical high.
However, the average bitcoin network hashrate in December 2017 was only about 13e, now it has increased about 10 times in the past two years. This means that although bitcoin prices have never returned to historical highs, fixed cost and investment in mining has doubled.
Taking the past three years as an example, the 10-fold increase in computing power also means that the income per unit of computing power has decreased by 10 times. However, bitcoin mining is still profitable.
The rise of computing power shows a problem: bitcoin’s network is becoming more and more powerful, with higher security and stability.
However, network hashrate is quite sensitive to the coin price. Often, when the price falls to the shutdown price of the mainstream mining machine, the price is often at the bottom of a small price cycle. Today, miners are scrambling for bitcoin mining.
Data on chain: commission have skyrocketed, but there is still a gap with the historical peak
The number of unconfirmed transactions is about 15000, but the number changes rapidly and greatly. BTC.com makes a K-line chart of the unconfirmed transaction volume of the memory pool. We can see that this value is at least the fourth-highest since 2016. About half of the peak of the bull market in 2017, that is to say, the online trading volume of bitcoin network has reached a high level.
Data from BTC.com
To some extent, this has increased the transaction fees on the chain. In other words, compared with the bull market period at the end of 2017, the present network is not as congested as it was then.
Judging from the previous data, the decrease of these data will also fall accordingly with the fall of prices, there is a strong correlation between them.
Characteristic index: FGI fear and greed index has risen to a periodic high
Data for mining and chain reflect the value of bitcoin, while some characteristic indicators will directly reflect market sentiment or price bubble.
The FGI fear greedy index is the most famous among the characteristic indicators of bitcoin. The index 0 means ‘extreme fear’, and 100 means ‘extreme greed’. Today, the number is 72, showing ‘greed’.
If we compare the performance of the index since May 2018, only in July 2019 it has reached the present level, which is the second-highest point in history as bitcoin price hit 13920.
But does this mean that prices will callback later? It is still uncertain, but the indicator assumes that ‘extreme fear’ may be a sign that investors are too worried, and that it may be an opportunity to buy the dip. And when investors become too greedy, it means a callback of coin price is on the way.